Black Friday Opens the Holiday Season as Shoppers Hunt for Deals

Black Friday opened the holiday shopping season on Friday with retailers upbeat about sales but customers more selective, as tariffs, weak hiring and stubborn inflation weigh on confidence, the Associated Press (via NBC News) and CNBC reported.

The National Retail Federation forecasts shoppers will spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent more than last year, according to the AP. Last year retailers rang up $976 billion in holiday sales, a 4.3 percent increase from 2023, the federation said. The AP reported that solid quarterly sales at Walmart, Best Buy and other retailers suggest shoppers have stayed resilient, though many retail executives say customers are focused on deals and are choosing carefully what to buy.

The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that consumer confidence fell this month to its lowest since April, when Mr. Trump announced his tariffs, in the aftermath of the government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, the AP reported. Many companies, the AP said, have absorbed some tariff costs and held back on hiring rather than raising prices. One shopper told the AP he delayed buying a car over tariff worries and will wait for the best toy deals: “The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it.”

Mall executives were more optimistic. Jill Renslow of the Mall of America said “we’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” and that traffic heading into Black Friday surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels, the AP reported.

CNBC described a day that looks different from the crowds of years past. Stores open later, foot traffic is flat, online shopping is up, and consumers are wary of whether the deals are good, CNBC reported. Mark Cohen, a former Sears Canada chief executive who directed retail studies at Columbia Business School, told CNBC, “The integrity of the event is pretty much gone,” because promotions now run for weeks and prices often fall further closer to the holiday.

Retailers are changing strategy accordingly, CNBC reported. Some, such as Kohl’s, launched sales earlier, while Walmart spaced out promotions in a mid-November event, one over the holiday weekend and a one-day event on Cyber Monday. Many other stores planned to stay closed on Thanksgiving.

For the past six years more people shopped online than in stores on Black Friday, and foot traffic has been relatively flat, CNBC reported. Store visits on Black Friday have been more than 50 percent above the full-year daily average since 2021, according to Placer.ai data cited by CNBC. Bank of America Institute data show the share of millennials and Gen Xers planning to do most of their shopping on Black Friday has dropped from 2023 to 2025, CNBC said.