Hormuz Traffic Stays Near a Standstill Two Days Into Iran Ceasefire

Two days after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains a small fraction of what it was before the war, leaving the main condition of the truce unmet. About a dozen ships crossed in the first two days, CBS News reported, and NBC News, citing S&P Global, counted nine vessels over Wednesday and Thursday.

Before the war began Feb. 28, the strait averaged 129 vessels a day in February, according to figures from the UN Trade and Development organization cited by CBS News. Traffic then collapsed to an average of six ships a day in March and about 10 a day by Thursday evening, CBS News said. NBC News reported that more than 100 vessels passed daily before the war and noted that exact counts are uncertain because some ships turn off or spoof their location transponders.

Few of the crossings are the oil tankers the world is waiting for. CBS News said only three oil or chemical tankers passed since the ceasefire, all on Thursday, and all three are under U.S. sanctions for previously shipping Iranian oil. Matt Smith of the analytics firm Kpler told CBS News the strait normally carries about a third of the world’s seaborne crude, roughly 15 million barrels a day, and that flow has “slowed to a trickle.”

The dispute is over who decides. NBC News reported that Iran insists ships must get its permission and has suggested it may charge a passage fee, with its navy publishing a map of designated lanes that hug Iran’s coast and marking a large area as hazardous because of possible mines. Gulf and European leaders oppose tolls or restrictions, and an official of the United Arab Emirates, Sultan Al Jaber, said the strait “is not open,” NBC News reported. President Trump suggested a U.S.-Iran “joint venture” to collect tolls, according to NBC News, even as the White House demanded that the strait be reopened “immediately, quickly and safely,” in the words of press secretary Karoline Leavitt, as reported by CBS News.

The ceasefire itself is under strain. CBS News said an Iranian military-linked news agency said early Wednesday that traffic would be suspended because of Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, a link the White House disputed; Vice President Vance described a “legitimate misunderstanding” over the terms. NBC News said the European Union and partners are finalizing an escort mission to deploy “once calm has been fully restored.”

Oil markets are responding to the doubts. NBC News reported that crude rose back above $100 a barrel on Thursday as optimism about the truce faded. Shipping firms are unsure whether to pay before or after passage, and the legal status of any toll is unsettled, since Iran has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and Oman, which borders the route, is a party, according to NBC News.

Talks between the two sides are set to begin Friday in Islamabad.