Senate Math Still Favors Republicans, but Momentum Is With Democrats

Seven weeks before the midterm elections, control of the Senate comes down to about a dozen races, and the map still tilts toward Republicans even as momentum favors Democrats, Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report told PBS NewsHour. “The math still favors Republicans,” she said.

Cook counts more than a dozen competitive Senate races and says 12 seats will likely decide control, with Republicans defending eight, PBS reported. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. NBC News described the landscape as a tough map for Democrats and a stormy environment for Republicans, with the majority depending heavily on races on Republican-leaning turf.

The environment is the Republicans’ problem. President Donald Trump won most of the contested states in 2024, but his disapproval rating is around 60 percent, Taylor said, which means voters can register discontent with the White House only by voting against his party. Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio, states Trump won by double digits, are now at the crux of the competitive map, and PBS’s Lisa Desjardins said some Republicans in the Senate are worried about Kansas. A CNN poll in Maine found 45 percent of voters said their vote reflects on Trump, PBS reported, and Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough race. Taylor also said high gas and diesel prices, plus pressure on beef and fertilizer costs, are hurting Republicans, and she tied them to the Iran war.

Republicans have advantages of their own. They hold a spending edge, mainly through super PACs, Taylor said, and Democrats may need to narrow that gap. In Texas, where Democrat James Talarico is running against Republican Ken Paxton, Republican-aligned super PACs have reserved more than $60 million in ads, PBS reported. Trump’s political operation launched a new group, No Going Back PAC, which reserved $47 million across six competitive Senate races and one House race, PBS reported last week.

New Hampshire has become a closer race. Taylor said Cook moved it to a toss-up this week, with former Sen. John E. Sununu, a Republican, facing Rep. Chris Pappas, a Democrat, for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen; both won their primaries on Sept. 8. NBC reported before the primary that most of the party leadership, including Trump, backed Sununu. In Michigan, Republicans are attacking Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, making a race NBC calls a toss-up closer than Democrats would like.

North Carolina is the Democrats’ best chance to flip a Republican-held seat, PBS reported. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, leads Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman and Trump’s handpicked candidate, by double digits in an Elon University poll. Colin Campbell of the public radio station WUNC said Cooper’s lead has not changed much in recent months though he expected the race to tighten, and that Trump’s approval rating in the state is at its lowest. Cooper is campaigning on affordability, with a “Make Stuff Cost Less Tour,” while Whatley stresses crime and has mentioned Trump less on the trail. Trump campaigned for Whatley on Wednesday, Campbell said, the first such appearance by Trump or a top administration official with him.

Taylor said Democrats must also watch donor enthusiasm. Sen. Rick Scott, a Florida Republican, said at the party’s Dallas convention that Republicans will likely hold the Senate but face challenges in Georgia, NBC reported.