Brazil Heads to the Polls in a Tight Race Between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

Brazilians vote on Sunday in a presidential election that polls show is close to a dead heat between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old leftist seeking a fourth term, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Nearly 160 million people are registered to vote for president, members of Congress, governors and some senators, according to Euronews. Twelve candidates are on the presidential ballot, but only Lula and Bolsonaro are seen as contenders. If no one wins more than half the vote, the top two will meet in a runoff on October 25, which both Euronews and Al Jazeera described as likely.

Recent surveys cited by Al Jazeera show Lula narrowly ahead in the first round: 37 percent to 33 percent in a September Quaest poll, 46 to 43 in an AtlasIntel survey and 40 to 36 in a Datafolha poll. Simulated runoffs show something close to a tie.

The candidates closed their campaigns on Saturday, Lula with a rally in Sao Paulo and Bolsonaro at a motorcycle rally in Sao Paulo state before finishing in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro has campaigned on hard-line security policies and fiscal restraint and has hammered Lula over the high cost of living. Polls show voters favor him on crime, corruption and inflation, while Lula leads on poverty, inequality, health and foreign affairs, Al Jazeera reported. Violence and corruption topped voters’ concerns in a Quaest survey.

The shadow of the elder Bolsonaro hangs over the race. He is serving a 27-year prison sentence for his role in a plot to overturn his 2022 defeat to Lula. A sprawling scandal around the jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro has touched both camps: Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation over funding from Vorcaro for a film about his father, and a former finance minister said he helped arrange a meeting between Vorcaro, Lula and the central bank chief, which Lula says involved no political interference.

The United States has become a central issue. Washington imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods last year, citing among other things the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, and later designated Brazil’s largest drug gangs as terrorist organizations. Lula has made national sovereignty a campaign theme and repeatedly urged Washington to stay out of the vote. President Trump has praised Flavio Bolsonaro without formally endorsing him and says he is watching closely.

On Thursday the United States announced it would suspend consular services in Brazil from Friday, citing unspecified security concerns, and Australia closed its embassy in Brasilia, citing the American alert, Al Jazeera reported. Brazil’s federal police said raids connected to a reported threat against American facilities found no evidence supporting it. Edinho Silva, president of Lula’s Workers’ Party, called the closures unprecedented and suggested they were meant to sway Brazilian opinion. The State Department said it was working with Brazilian authorities and noted that embassies routinely issue alerts about local threats.

Bolsonaro’s supporters argue that closer ties with Washington and a tougher approach to organized crime would make Brazilians safer and the economy stronger. Lula’s camp argues the election is a test of whether Brazil can choose its leaders without outside pressure.